But Football quite often, is a gut game…

Tom Brady had great statistics and records at Michigan but was held from the QB job until Drew Bledsoe got injured—now he’s demonstrating he’s Hall of Fame material.
The strongest statistical variable predicting game wins in football is turn-over ratio. But that’s it.

Baseball, however, is a game of statistics. And, a game of attribution. Famous baseball statistician Bill James found the strongest indicator of scoring runs in a game is whether the leadoff hitter gets on base.

Mark Hughes, CEO
C3 Metrics

Now what does this have to do with online media attribution (by media attribution, we mean which online media sources contribute to a transaction)? A lot.

Similar to Baseball stats, when a smart online advertiser embraces a robust media attribution system (disclosure…I’m CEO of C3 Metrics), they measure what we call “origination” of a sale.

This concept of attributing credit to online media sources who originate revenue is quite new. Even though America spends $30 billion a year advertising online…the industry is stuck in decade-old measurement systems.

Sadly, most of today’s Internet measurement systems give 100% transaction credit to the last clicked ad, or last viewed ad before the transaction.

What this means, is that these outdated measurement systems give ZERO credit to online media sources originating revenue.

So if four Internet ads contribute to a transaction, today’s outdated systems allocate entire credit to the fourth, last ad–ignoring the first three, which actually seeded the revenue.

But full funnel media attribution systems like C3 Metrics work differently.

Media attribution recognizes credit should be assigned to a team of internet ads…and perhaps stronger credit should be given to the one who originated the transaction—because without originating revenue, how can you even have revenue?

So in the world of Baseball, and in the world of online media attribution—the leadoff hitter/originator is pretty darn important.

But what about the rest of the players…do they get credit with media attribution?

Just as in baseball where some players strike out, get RBI’s, or get two-run homers–some get credit and some don’t. In attribution systems like C3 Metrics, the revenue gets credited to three fundamental players: Originators, Assists, and Converters.

All online media sources are captured in C3 Metrics from the top of the funnel where sales are originated to the very bottom of the funnel. So for a $100 transaction, an Originator would get a fraction of that $100 attributed to them—and the Assist and Converter would get their respective fractional credit of $100 attributed to them. 100% of the revenue attributed into three parts.

We know that leadoff hitters getting on-base produces the largest impact on scoring runs (less runs are scored without them). And with media attribution, we know that Originators produce the largest impact on scoring revenue (no revenue without originators).

Baseball, Football and media attribution—one of these things is not like the other, and one of these things is like the other.

Batter up!

It’s a scary situation and before we get to the cause, let’s first do this: To discover if you have this problem at your company, add up all the revenue or actions from your different sources (search, display, email, affiliate, organic, etc.) for the month…if they exceed the actual revenue or actual number of actions for the month, then you’ve got a problem.

When you add your respective channels plus organic, they should equal your total from the confirmation page.

Yes, 100% from the sum of all your online channels plus organic should equal 100% from your confirmation page.

Mark Hughes, CEO
C3 Metrics

Last Click Attribution = Bad

Last Click Attribution: In an e-commerce world where multiple Internet ads contribute to the purchase path of an online transaction, sadly, most Internet measurements give 100% of transaction credit to the very last ad seen or clicked before the transaction.

So if four Internet ads contributed to a transaction, in today’s world, most systems allocate entire credit to the fourth and last ad–ignoring the first three which actually drove the revenue. Plus, each Internet ad likely fires their respective pixel…amounting to 4X the actual amount of transactions and revenue.

And in the $30 billion U.S. Internet ad market, this leads to millions of dollars of waste. We’re just now realizing the problem, and seeing solutions.

Full Funnel Attribution = Good

Some smarter attribution companies (disclosure…I’m CEO of C3 Metrics) provide ‘full funnel’ attribution, giving credit to a team of Internet ads, instead of just the ‘last clicked’ ad.

Some people call this method of splitting and attributing revenue & transaction credit ‘fractional’ attribution. In C3’s system, we capture all sources from the top of the funnel to the very bottom of the funnel in every transaction and then attribute credit to a team of ads we call the Originators, Assists, and Converters.

After credit is attributed to the team (Originators, Assists, and Converters) causing the transaction…when you add them back together—it’s got to total 100%.

Remember, it’s all got to add up.

That’s the very first step in understanding full funnel attribution.

About the Author
Mark Hughes is the CEO & Co-Founder of C3 Metrics. Hughes grew eBay’s Half.com from zero to 8 million online customers as its VP of Marketing in less than three years. Half.com was sold to eBay for over $300 million six months after launch. He has spent close to $100 million online ad dollars, which planted the seeds for creation of C3 Metrics’ attribution algorithms and arrival in 2008—seeing the need to help Advertisers and Networks discover previously missed revenue drivers and increase ROI. Hughes brings a wealth of creative and quantitative experience in consumer marketing from PepsiCo’s Pizza Hut Division; Pep Boys, the automotive aftermarket retailer; and American Mobile Satellite (now XM Satellite Radio). Hughes is the son of a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist, and Hughes’ own book, Buzzmarketing, is published in 14 countries. In its first year of release it was heralded by Fast Company as one of ‘The Ten Best Business Reads of the Year’ and named by The Financial Times of London as one of the ‘Best Business Books of the Year’ along with Freakonomics. Mr. Hughes holds his MBA from Columbia Business School in Marketing & International Business.

The answer is: full funnel attribution creates more winners than losers.

Let’s look at the four major stakeholders: Advertiser/Agency, Networks, Search, and Affiliate.

1. Advertiser/Agency – Winner
Why, because proper attribution systems now capture the top of the sales funnel, seeing what planted the seeds for revenue. Without insight into display channels, keywords, and other granular paid media sources–you will inevitably plateau your revenue growth. Versus five years ago, e-commmerce sites are slowing towards single digit growth compared to the easy earnings growth rates of 50-100%.

With full funnel attribution, cutting underperformers and scaling real performers creates exponential impact…and can make you a hero at your company.

Mark Hughes, CEO
C3 Metrics

Networks strive for a win-win and an ongoing relationship with both Advertiser and Agencies, but due to the outdated ‘last click’ world, Networks are finding decreased budgets because their impressions do not appear to be working. But Networks may need to change their strategies by shifting the old rules of credit from doing everything possible to be the last Internet ad at the bottom of the funnel, to a healthy balance of driving revenue with originating transactions.

With real-time attribution for view-through impressions, Advertisers and Networks quickly realize that what ‘appeared’ to not be working previously, was actually filling up the top part of the funnel with new customers — and can scale this.

Some Networks, however, may lose out in the new world of attribution…but only if they don’t react, utilize the data, and improve efficiency on their end as well as the Advertiser’s end. Attribution can not solve failure to work hard for a client—and perhaps exposes this if taking place.

3. Search – Winner
Both the new Microsoft-Yahoo search engines and Google definitely win in the new attribution world. Primarily for two major reasons: longer time tracking with attribution solutions like C3 Metrics; and previously rejected upper funnel keywords with a higher cost-per-click.

Currently, the world’s most popular (free) analytics program used by large and small sites alike is Google Analytics. It’s great because of many reasons, but when it comes to tracking whether generic (non-brand) search term like “401k” later drove an account being opened more than 30 days later—these analytic programs which only track for 30 days fall short…their tracking simply expires in 30 days.

Quite often we hear clients say their the average “time to convert” is 12 days, or bi-modal…28 days and three days. But after deploying C3 Metrics, which allows insight into tracking for greater than two years…the average time to convert turns out to be much longer in every respect. So just by the very fact that solutions like C3 sit alongside current tracking programs, the search channel and their keywords now get more credit simply because the funnel often has a lifetime greater than 30 days.

Search also wins with full funnel attribution by capturing what’s really driving revenue from the top, through the middle, and down to the bottom of the purchase funnel. It’s been said that attribution is biased against search, because a significant amount of transactions end with a brand term being the last click. Yes and no.

Brand terms are often at the bottom of the sales funnel after the consumer researches reviews, opinions, and price. But a smart Advertiser will never cease bidding on its own brand term—and allow its competitor to show up in the first sponsored link up on search. Hardly.

But for the first time, attribution reduces risk on much higher-priced generic terms. An advertiser might find that generic terms like “401k” or “Savings Account” once had hugely expensive cost per conversion in the last-click world, and stopped spending on those higher cost terms. But now with insight into full funnel attribution, they can revisit these terms to discover if they are getting attribution credit resulting in conversions, now revealing the true ROI. With attribution, Advertisers win with previously missed upper funnel revenue drivers, and the search providers win also by gaining or regaining previously rejected higher cost-per-click terms.

4. Affiliates – Still Winners
Affiliates and their tracking systems were created 10+ years ago, and haven’t changed their credit systems much from the last click. You would think they would be losers in this new world of attribution, but not so.

Affiliates are often one of the most cost-efficient channels online (and hard to build up over time). Yes, there is inefficiency, but after running attribution programs like C3 Metrics side-by-side with existing tracking programs, the Affiliate channel still performs well from an ROI standpoint.

So the choice becomes one of real world rubber meeting the road. If you tell your affiliate provider they will all of a sudden make 30-50% less money, but still have to put forth the same effort…they will likely abandon you, and hop over to your competitor. The choice becomes keeping efficient transactions (perhaps not as efficient as it should be) or losing all those transactions—completely.

Most of our clients see the difference. They attribute Affiliates, so all components are tracked and add up to 100% of the funnel…but continue to pay current Affiliates the same way they have always paid them. So current Affiliates still win, but new affiliates might go into a different compensation/tracking system for the future.

The Real Winner
The real winners are first and foremost, the Advertiser and Agency. In today’s world of increasing pressure to make earnings, and drive more revenue with less cost—proper attribution technology can turn you into a hero at your company in a matter of months.

About the Author
Mark Hughes is the CEO & Co-Founder of C3 Metrics. Hughes grew eBay’s Half.com from zero to 8 million online customers as its VP of Marketing in less than three years. Half.com was sold to eBay for over $300 million six months after launch. He has spent close to $100 million online ad dollars, which planted the seeds for creation of C3 Metrics’ attribution algorithms and arrival in 2008—seeing the need to help Advertisers and Networks discover previously missed revenue drivers and increase ROI. Hughes brings a wealth of creative and quantitative experience in consumer marketing from PepsiCo’s Pizza Hut Division; Pep Boys, the automotive aftermarket retailer; and American Mobile Satellite (now XM Satellite Radio). Hughes is the son of a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist, and Hughes’ own book, Buzzmarketing, is published in 14 countries. In its first year of release it was heralded by Fast Company as one of ‘The Ten Best Business Reads of the Year’ and named by The Financial Times of London as one of the ‘Best Business Books of the Year’ along with Freakonomics. Mr. Hughes holds his MBA from Columbia Business School in Marketing & International Business.

• Topics covered in the whitepaper include:Thorough discussion of the study’s methodology.
• Quantification of the degree to which cookie deletion leads to an overstatement in site-servers’ estimates of the number of unique site visitors.
• Comparison of first-party vs. third-party cookie deletion rates and the resulting overstatement in servers’ estimates of the size of site audiences and the reach of online advertising campaigns.
• Examination of consumers’ awareness of, and attitudes towards, cookies.
• Analysis of other factors leading to potentially inflated audience reports from site server data such as failure to remove international traffic from calculation of the domestic audience and the impact of cookie blocking.

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Written by By Mark Hughes, Author, Consultant & Marketing expert & Jeff Greenfield, COO & Co-Founder of C3 Metrics™ , addressing these three issues:

1. Does the online media industry have a flaw in its reporting?
2. Is there over counting and double paying for conversions?
3. How do we properly attribute a sale with multiple media sources?

As someone who led online customer acquisition for a subsidiary of the #1 auction site getting 8 million customers in three years, I thought I knew everything. As someone who helped an online property grow from 1 million to 15 million unique visits a month with 18 million annual downloads, I thought I knew everything. That was until a client asked three questions…..

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